Here’s what the US economy will look like in 2012
1144_ 1/18/12 - We're here at the ACG Denver opening luncheon for 2012 speaking with the returning keynote speaker Alan Beaulieu of ITR that's the Institute for Trend Research. When we interviewed Alan last year he told us that we would go through a mild recovery in 2011; slow job growth; housing market going nowhere in a hurry. We'll muddle along, but look a lot better than many other nations - so the dollar should be fine. Being right on is one thing, but Alan appreciated Larry's recall because, "as a forecaster, it's really nice when someone remembers - you don't get that a lot." Naturally Larry asked for some predictions and Alan is happy to do that, but he'll stay away from politics - see he really is a smart man. For the economy Alan tells us he thinks 2012 is actually going to be a little better than 2011. Businesses should continue to prosper, hiring will continue. It's not going to be great guns but it's still going to be moving forward. People who had really good revenues in 2011, good profits are going to have a little more so in 2012. More people will have their jobs, the housing market will begin to solidify even more so. Towards the end of the year a little rise will go on in housing starts. We've gone through the darkest part and now we're in a recovery that's going to last into 2013. Larry asked his signature challenge and opportunities question. Alan said, "Very interesting question. Challenges will come from overseas. Businesses that are tied to Europe, tied to China, I think, will be facing some pressures ...Inflationary problems from China and a lack of sales going into Europe. So others that are U.S. centric are really going to ignore a lot of that and firms that have their own cash flow and not dependent on outside financing from commercial banking are also going to find it's a better year. Because problems in Europe can bleed over into the U.S. commercial banking market and that would be a problem for heavily dependent firms, firms that need that equity outside of themselves. Opportunities will come...
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